A recent report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects that Bangladesh and Vietnam will play a dominant role in shaping the global cotton trade over the next ten years. The report highlights increased cotton usage in textile mills for export-oriented garments as a key driver behind this trend.
According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034, world cotton trade is expected to grow steadily at an annual rate of 1.6%, reaching approximately 12.3 million tonnes by 2034. The surge is primarily fueled by rising textile demand in Asian countries, particularly Vietnam and Bangladesh, where mill consumption is expanding rapidly.
Bangladesh is forecasted to account for 18% of global raw cotton imports by 2034, with an annual growth rate of 2.4%. Currently, Bangladesh consumes over 1.7 million tonnes of cotton and imports more than three-quarters of its requirements. The report attributes the country’s expanding textile industry to factors such as low production costs, an abundant labor force, and supportive government policies.
Asia remains the central hub for raw cotton processing, with Vietnam, Bangladesh, and India leading the way. While China is expected to gradually lose its dominance in cotton processing—due to rising labor costs and stricter environmental and labor regulations—it will still remain the largest processor by 2034, accounting for 30% of global consumption. India will follow with a 22% share.
The decline in China’s cotton mill consumption since 2010 has been further accelerated by the abolition of the government-supported support price system in 2014. Consequently, textile processing activities are shifting to other Asian nations, notably Vietnam and Bangladesh.
The report notes that since the phase-out of the Multifiber Arrangement in 2005, an international quota system, Bangladesh and Vietnam have experienced robust growth in their textile sectors, benefitting from low-cost labor, government support, and preferential trade agreements such as the European Union’s duty-free access under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP).
Looking ahead, Vietnam is projected to lead in annual mill use growth at 2.7%, followed by Bangladesh at 2.1%. Globally, cotton production is also expected to increase by 1.3% annually, reaching 29.5 million tonnes by 2034, driven mainly by yield improvements. India is anticipated to surpass China as the world’s largest cotton producer, thanks to significant yield increases, with Brazil and the United States remaining key exporters to meet rising Asian demand.
Overall, the report underscores a shifting landscape in global cotton trade, with Asian countries, especially Bangladesh and Vietnam, emerging as pivotal players in the decade to come.
